By William Wallis in Cairo
Published: November 29 2006 02:00 | Last updated: November 29 2006 02:00
Bahrain is unlikely to feature on the agenda when US President George W. Bush meets Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, in Jordan tomorrow in search of a magic formula to turn the tide of violence in Iraq.
But the tiny Gulf kingdom – host to the US 5th naval fleet – has been buffeted too by the shifting winds of US policy in the region and will be looking to Mr Bush for signs of any fresh change in direction. Because Bahrain, located near Iraq, is also divided between Islam’s two predominant sects, the spreading fall-out from the sectarian killing in Iraq is also magnified there.
By William Wallis in Cairo
Published: November 29 2006 02:00 | Last updated: November 29 2006 02:00
Bahrain is unlikely to feature on the agenda when US President George W. Bush meets Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, in Jordan tomorrow in search of a magic formula to turn the tide of violence in Iraq.
But the tiny Gulf kingdom – host to the US 5th naval fleet – has been buffeted too by the shifting winds of US policy in the region and will be looking to Mr Bush for signs of any fresh change in direction. Because Bahrain, located near Iraq, is also divided between Islam’s two predominant sects, the spreading fall-out from the sectarian killing in Iraq is also magnified there.
Rather than ushering in a new era of more democratic rule – as Washington once hoped – the wider regional impact of Saddam Hussein’s demise is turning out to be much more messy.
Last weekend, the al-Wefaq National Islamic Society – the main opposition group representing Bahrain’s Shia majority – took nearly half the seats in parliamentary elections. The other half will be dominated by Sunni Islamists.
The outcome was a mark both of spreading sectarian division as well as the socially conservative, often anti-American forces to which Mr Bush’s interventions in the region have inadvertently given strength.
Bahrain’s parliament, however, will itself be constitutionally powerless to effect real change – a symbol to some pro-democracy activists of the strict limits to political reform rather than a real check to the king’s powers.
Only 18 months ago Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, stood in front of an Egyptian audience to serve notice to the region’s autocracies. “For 60 years, my country, the United States pursued stability at the expense of democracy in the Middle East and we ach-ieved neither. Now we are taking a different course.”
Many of the Arab regimes Washington backs have indeed been weakened by recent events, partly because their reliance on US military and other support is increasingly difficult to justify to populations bristling with anti-US sentiment.
But most Arabs remain unconvinced that democracy has in turn been strengthened in any durable way. Since Washington began relaxing pressure on Arab regimes around a year ago, the margin of manoeuvre for opposition groups has been narrowing, with many governments again stalling on political reforms.
On a more recent visit to Cairo this year Ms Rice was asked by reporters whether she had raised the jailing of Ayman Nour, an Egyptian opposition leader, with the authorities.
She answered that she used every opportunity to press for his release. Sitting next to her, however, Aboul Gheit, Egypt’s foreign minister, quipped that she had not done so this time.
Arab commentators took this as another sign that Washington has reverted to business as usual, prioritising short-term stability over potentially more long-term democratic gains.
“The policy of encouraging civil society, human rights groups and political activism put a lot of pressure on the regime. A lot of activists came out of the woodwork as a result,” said Nabeel Rajab, head of the banned Bahrain Centre for Human Rights. “But many of them now feel they are alone again, and the Americans are back to supporting dictatorships.”
In an interview last week Sheikh Ali Salman, leader of Bahrain’s Shia opposition, described Iraq as the only real democracy in the Arab world. But the chaos in Iraq was now used as a pretext by Arab governments to put brakes on their own reforms.
His counterpart, Adel al-Maawda, from the Sunni Salafist block in parliament, which is more deferential to the royal family, put it another way. “We have a saying that it is better to have 60 years under a corrupt leadership than a single night with no leadership at all,” he said.
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