September 28, 2010
MANAMA (Reuters) – Bahrain’s crackdown against the Shi’ite opposition before a parliamentary election on October 23 risks driving majority Shi’ite Muslims away from moderate parties and into more radical groups, analysts say.
Bahrain, home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet and a regional off-shore banking hub, managed to end widespread Shi’ite unrest in the 1990s with a new constitution and parliamentary elections.
September 28, 2010
MANAMA (Reuters) – Bahrain’s crackdown against the Shi’ite opposition before a parliamentary election on October 23 risks driving majority Shi’ite Muslims away from moderate parties and into more radical groups, analysts say.
Bahrain, home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet and a regional off-shore banking hub, managed to end widespread Shi’ite unrest in the 1990s with a new constitution and parliamentary elections.
But Shi’ites complain they continue to be treated as second-class citizens, with limited access to secure jobs in government ministries and security forces. They say parliament is failing to address their grievances despite efforts by Bahrain and other Gulf Arab rulers to co-opt opposition voices.
“That hasn’t succeeded in Bahrain, there are regular street protests, so some within the regime will be asking how useful the reforms have been,” said Jane Kinninmont, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“It is too early to tell whether this is the end of the reform process, but there are certainly signs of reversal, like the reappearance of serious torture allegations,” she said.
The authorities have arrested some Shi’ite leaders, accusing them of plotting to instigate unrest, and Shi’ites say authorities have closed down some opposition websites.
There have been street battles between security forces and protesters outside mosques in some villages where Shi’ite clerics have been banned from giving sermons.
Power in Bahrain effectively rests with the ruling Al Khalifa family, which is Sunni Muslim. Parliamentary bills need to pass an upper house whose members are appointed by the king.
The government denies there is discrimination against Shi’ites in government jobs and denies the use of torture. It says the reform process continues but that it will take time.
RADICAL GROUPS
Bahrain has close political and commercial ties with top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, which fears the rising regional influence of Shi’ite power Iran and also has a large Shi’ite population in its Eastern Province adjacent to Bahrain.
“Saudi Arabia is the patron of Bahrain and they will make sure their security is maintained,” said Theodore Karasik of Dubai’s Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.
This would help Bahrain sustain a crackdown on the opposition despite condemnation from international rights groups and only mild criticism by Western governments.
Analysts say the crackdown is making it harder for Wefaq, the largest Shi’ite bloc in parliament, to maintain its position of advocating dialogue with the government.
They say Wefaq supporters could increasingly turn to more radical groups such as Haq, that dispute the legitimacy of reforms and whose leaders have been targeted during the crackdown, seen as the biggest in ten years.
“This damages Wefaq, it will bring pressure on them over why they are taking part. The youth in particular might move over to Haq,” said Katja Niethammer of the University of Hamburg in Germany.
Jassim Hussain, a Wefaq parliament representative, said the crackdown will make it more difficult for the group to mobilize its voters to go to the polls.
“Closing down websites and newsletters is contrary to strengthening public interest in the elections,” he said.
Wefaq says dialogue with the authorities and its work in parliament have produced results, pointing to a parliamentary investigation into land ownership in March.
One result of the investigation, which some observers say has unnerved the ruling family, was that 65 sq km of government land had been transferred to private sector companies without appropriate compensation since 2003.
Wefaq has 17 seats out of 40 in the assembly. Some Sunni deputies helped it gain the necessary majority to launch the investigation.
“This unity, which we have seen between Wefaq and some Sunni pro-government MPs, happened in an open and relaxed environment,” said Abdulnabi Alekry, head of the Bahrain Transparency Society and a former exile. “Today, the position of the pro-government groups on that will be different.”