A crackdown on Shia opposition figures ahead of elections threatens the long-term stability of this western ally in the Gulf
Jon Marks
guardian.co.uk, Monday 13 September 2010
Talk of conspiracies by Shia opposition politicians, civil society activists and businessmen to overthrow the Sunni-dominated constitutional monarchy in Bahrain seems far-fetched, despite the vehemence of the authorities’ claims. But a wave of arrests in the runup to parliamentary elections has exacerbated protests in the surprisingly poor villages where Shia communities live in this supposedly wealthy Gulf state, and provoked more demonstrations in the capital, Manama.
A crackdown on Shia opposition figures ahead of elections threatens the long-term stability of this western ally in the Gulf
Jon Marks
guardian.co.uk, Monday 13 September 2010
Talk of conspiracies by Shia opposition politicians, civil society activists and businessmen to overthrow the Sunni-dominated constitutional monarchy in Bahrain seems far-fetched, despite the vehemence of the authorities’ claims. But a wave of arrests in the runup to parliamentary elections has exacerbated protests in the surprisingly poor villages where Shia communities live in this supposedly wealthy Gulf state, and provoked more demonstrations in the capital, Manama.
This has thrown into question the long-term stability of a small but significant country flanked by the Gulf giants Saudi Arabia and Iran. In jeopardy is one of the tentative experiments at introducing meaningful political reform in the Gulf monarchies, where kingdoms and emirates remain under the control of family dynasties – Bahrain under the ruling al-Khalifa family.
As the political mood has soured, clashes between Shia youths and the security forces have spread across Bahrain – with first violence reported last month on the second largest island, Muharraq.
Responsible voices have been calling for a revival of dialogue between the ruling establishment, headed by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, and the opposition and civil society leaders he courted earlier in his reign. But ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for 23 October, the authorities have shown no sign of relenting from the security crackdown of recent months. Several hundred people, including prominent opposition and civil society figures, have now been arrested following claims by the state’s National Security Agency (NSA) that a “network” of local militants has “external links” with “outlaws” who advocated terror and sabotage.
These charges are treated with scepticism by many observers – who fear a return to the notoriously intolerant, security-driven approach to handling the majority Shia population, its political leaders and also Sunni dissidents that marked the little-lamented reign of King Hamad’s father, Sheikh Isa bin Salman al-Khalifa, who died in 1999.
The government has clearly taken a less tolerant turn after the initial phase of King Hamad’s reign, when parliamentary representation was revived, bringing in the largest Shia opposition group, al-Wefaq National Islamic Society into the National Assembly (Bahrain still shies away from formally describing political parties as parties). The authorities have proven unwilling to concede ground over fundamental grievances expressed by the Shia majority, such as the practice of recruiting Sunni immigrants from Syria and other Arab countries to join the security forces and granting them nationality – a policy, critics claim, that is intended to re-engineer the islands’ religious mix.
King Hamad has many supporters, including some former opponents. At a meeting at Chatham House in London earlier this year, Dr Salah Ali, the head of a Sunni party with Muslim Brotherhood affiliations, said that the decade since King Hamad’s undoubtedly popular National Action Charter was promulgated had consolidated democracy to an extent not apparent elsewhere in the region. Hamad had created “a modern constitutional monarchy based on a bicameral parliament”. Diaa Yehia Ali al-Mosaw – a prominent Shia politician who had spent more than a decade in exile – concurred with this view.
This legacy is in jeopardy, undermining opposition groups such as al-Wefaq – which holds 17 of the 40 seats in the lower house of parliament – and the secular leftist Waad, which have been willing to participate in King Hamad’s constitutional structures. According to al-Wefaq’s political leader, Sheikh Ali Salman, “the way the ongoing security campaign has been handled, and the rights violations that accompanied it, have in one week destroyed 10 years of progress in this country”.
This is not a turn that Bahrain’s many friends predicted in the first half of this decade, as King Hamad and his son, Crown Prince Sheikh Salman, worked so hard to reverse the political ills that marked Sheikh Isa’s rule, creating a more modern polity that would underpin the islands’ drive to remain the Gulf’s leading financial centre and attract investment that would create jobs and raise living standards for the Shia majority and Sunni job-seekers.
Hamad’s new constitutional monarchy brought exiled opponents back to the island state to create more consensual politics where the minority Sunni population traditionally dominates in a sometimes uneasy social compact with the majority Shia communities.
Bahrain had developed itself as a well-regarded offshore financial centre, which employs thousands in Manama, including some of the Gulf region’s most respected regulators – helping to avoid the sort of financial meltdown that recently blighted its main regional rival, Dubai. By promoting a diversity of employment opportunities, Shia frustrations were expected to diminish. For the west, Sandhurst-trained King Hamad’s Bahrain is a significant ally; his kingdom hosts the US fifth fleet.
Compare this positive impression with recent news about the crackdown. While human rights activists and many regional specialists doubt that Bahrain has been threatened by a concerted plot, the government is sticking to its claims, backed by other GCC governments, who in early September called for the UK government to hand over two alleged conspirators, Haq Movement leader Hassan Mushaima – a leading opposition figure who has been staying in Britain – and long-term exile Said al-Shihabi, leader of the Bahrain Freedom Movement, an Islamic thinker with a long commitment to nonviolent activity.
Dialogue with politicians like Mushaima and Shihabi holds the key to reducing tensions and rebuilding the consensus that so inspired Bahrainis after King Hamad unveiled his constitution. A continued hard line will threaten to institutionalise communal instability rather than building the more consensual politics that King Hamad has promised his diverse population.